Keyword → consumer price index

June CPI Falls 0.4% to 3.5% Annual Rate — Core Inflation Drops to 2.6%, Slashing Fed July Hike Odds to 17%

June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, well below the 3.8% consensus, as gasoline prices collapsed in the wake of June's brief Hormuz ceasefire. Core CPI, which the Fed watches most closely, came in at 2.6% annually — a sharp deceleration from May's 2.9% and below the 2.8% estimate. CME FedWatch immediately repriced July hike odds from 42% to 17%, though September remains priced at roughly 60% for at least one increase.

U.S. Inflation Data Meets Expectations but Leaves Federal Reserve Path Uncertain

The latest U.S. inflation report showed consumer prices rising broadly in line with expectations, offering markets a temporary sense of stability. However, economists warn that energy price volatility and geopolitical risks could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, leaving investors uncertain about the timing and magnitude of future interest rate decisions.