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Federal Reserve Targets 3.50%-3.75% Rate Hold Today — Kevin Warsh's First Press Conference Tests 55% Hawkish Bet

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% when it concludes a two-day policy meeting this afternoon, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. CME FedWatch data points to a roughly 97% probability of no change, but a Bank of America survey found 55% of respondents expect Warsh to strike a hawkish tone at his 2:30 p.m. press conference. An updated dot plot and economic projections due alongside the statement will offer the clearest signal yet on the rate path into 2027.

Jabil Posts $3.16 Core EPS in Q3 Fiscal 2026, Tops $3.10 Estimate — Raises FY26 Outlook on AI Infrastructure Surge

Jabil posted fiscal third-quarter 2026 core earnings of $3.16 per share on revenue of $8.8 billion, topping Wall Street estimates of roughly $3.10 per share and $8.61 billion. The contract manufacturer raised its fourth-quarter outlook to as much as $4.20 in core EPS, citing surging AI infrastructure demand alongside better-than-expected results in automotive and connected living. CEO Mike Dastoor said the company's diversified model continues to deliver margin expansion and strong free cash flow heading into fiscal 2027.

CarMax Beats With $1.31 EPS on $8.01B Revenue in Q1 Fiscal 2027 — Stock Erases 5% Spike on Margin Concerns

CarMax reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings of $1.31 per diluted share on revenue of $8.01 billion, both well ahead of analyst estimates of $0.96 per share and $7.43 billion. Shares spiked as much as 5% before erasing those gains as investors focused on a $230 year-over-year decline in gross profit per retail used unit. New CEO Keith Barr introduced a four-pillar strategic framework aimed at driving consistent unit growth and shareholder returns.

U.S. Retail Sales Rise 0.9% in May 2026, Nearly Double 0.5% Forecast — Consumer Resilience Tested Ahead of Fed Decision

U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in May, nearly double the 0.5% increase economists had forecast, according to Commerce Department data released this morning. Retail trade sales climbed 1.0% from April and 7.5% from a year earlier, with nonstore retailers up 12.2% year-over-year. The stronger-than-expected print arrives hours before the Federal Reserve's policy decision, giving officials fresh evidence that consumer spending remains resilient even as inflation stays above target.

Brent Crude Falls to $78, Five-Day Low — Interim US-Iran Deal Set for Friday Signing Could Restore Hormuz Flows

Brent crude fell toward $78 a barrel today, its fifth straight losing session and the lowest level since early March, as traders priced in a planned interim agreement between the United States and Iran set to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. The deal would let Tehran immediately resume oil exports and ease restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping, prompting tanker operators to begin repositioning vessels toward the region. The International Energy Agency warned the shift could contribute to a renewed global oil surplus.

SpaceX Climbs 3.1% to $208 Today — Stock Extends Post-IPO Rally on $60B Anysphere Deal

SpaceX shares rose 3.1% to $208 in premarket trading today, extending the post-IPO rally that began when the company went public on June 12 in the largest listing in Nasdaq history. The move builds on Tuesday's announcement that SpaceX will acquire AI coding startup Cursor's parent, Anysphere, in a $60 billion all-stock deal. Analysts say the acquisition signals SpaceX's ambitions beyond rockets and into artificial intelligence, intensifying its rivalry with OpenAI and Anthropic.

Micron Technology Surges 10.8% to $1,088 — Bank Upgrades Fuel AI Memory Supercycle Bet Ahead of Q3 2026 Earnings

Micron Technology shares jumped 10.8% to roughly $1,088 after TD Cowen and RBC Capital Markets sharply raised price targets on the memory chipmaker. The rally was reinforced by a U.S.-Iran peace agreement that lifted risk appetite across semiconductors, alongside analyst forecasts that DRAM prices could climb 58% to 63% in the third quarter and HBM pricing could more than double by 2027. Micron reports fiscal third-quarter results on June 24, with revenue guided to a record $33.5 billion.

Boeing Jumps 4.5% as Strait of Hormuz Peace Deal Eases Jet Fuel Cost Pressure on Airlines

Boeing shares climbed 4.5% after a U.S.-Iran agreement raised hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, easing fears of prolonged elevated jet fuel costs for airlines. Lower oil prices improve the profitability outlook for carriers, which analysts say increases the likelihood of advanced aircraft orders and on-schedule deliveries. The move follows Boeing's report of a 33% jump in May aircraft deliveries, signaling a broader production recovery for the aerospace giant.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Opens First FOMC Meeting Today — Rate Hold at 3.50%-3.75% Widely Expected

The Federal Reserve opened a two-day FOMC meeting today, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, with markets pricing in a near-certain hold on the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Investors are focused less on the rate decision itself and more on Warsh's tone, the updated dot plot, and Wednesday's press conference for signals on policy direction into 2027 amid sticky inflation and pressure from the White House for lower rates.