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Gold Climbs 1.47% to $4,183 as 57K Jobs Print Deflates Fed Hike Bets — Dollar Falls to Two-Week Low

Gold futures rose 1.47% to $4,183.45 per ounce on Friday as the dollar fell to a two-week low after the June jobs report showed only 57,000 new positions — well below the 110,000 forecast — sharply reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Gold had bounced from an eight-month low below $4,000 earlier in the week, and the payroll miss now extends that rebound. J.P. Morgan forecasts gold averaging $6,000 by year-end 2026 if geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

Nasdaq-100 Futures Rebound 1.2% on July 4 Holiday as Banks Raise S&P 500 Targets — Citi Sets 8,100, Goldman Sets 8,000

Nasdaq-100 futures rose 1.2% during abbreviated Independence Day holiday trading as Asian markets staged a 2% recovery after heavy semiconductor profit-taking earlier in the week. Citi raised its S&P 500 target to 8,100 and Goldman Sachs to 8,000, with both citing AI infrastructure earnings as the primary growth driver. The recovery comes after a mid-week slide in which the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 6.7% in a single session following a near-doubling in Q2.

June Nonfarm Payrolls Due at 8:30 AM — Consensus Expects 100,000 Jobs as Fed Rate-Hike Odds Hit 54.5% for 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the June nonfarm payrolls report today at 8:30 AM ET, with Wall Street consensus at 100,000 new jobs versus 172,000 in May. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are expected at 0.3% month-over-month. Markets pricing a 54.5% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end. Wednesday's soft ADP print of 98,000 private-sector jobs has left investors on edge ahead of the binary catalyst.

Micron Technology Falls 10.6%, Sandisk Drops 10.6%, Intel Loses 9% — Semiconductor Rout Wipes Out $1T+ in One Session

Micron Technology and Sandisk each plunged more than 10.6% Wednesday while AMD fell 6.9% and Intel sank 9%, as profit-taking in the AI-chip complex erased more than $1 trillion in semiconductor market value. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF lost 5.4%. South Korea's Kospi collapsed 7.89% overnight in response, with SK Hynix down over 12%. Analysts attributed the selloff to valuation fatigue after the sector's extraordinary first-half run rather than any fundamental deterioration.

Meta Platforms Rises 8.8% on Meta Compute Cloud Launch — $145B AI Capex Strategy Reframed as Revenue Asset

Meta Platforms jumped 8.8% after Bloomberg reported the company plans to launch Meta Compute, a cloud business selling excess AI computing capacity and model access externally to compete with AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud. The move reframes Meta's $125 billion to $145 billion 2026 capital expenditure plan from a spending concern to a potential revenue engine. CEO Mark Zuckerberg's pivot offered the single biggest counterweight to Wednesday's broad semiconductor and tech selloff.

Bending Spoons IPO Closes 42.8% Above $29 Price — AOL and Vimeo Owner Raises $1.68B at $25B Nasdaq Valuation

Bending Spoons, the Italian software acquirer behind AOL, Vimeo, Evernote, and Eventbrite, closed its first Nasdaq session at $41.42, up 42.8% from its $29 IPO price after raising $1.68 billion — above the $26 to $28 marketed range. The Milan-based company carries roughly $4.4 billion in debt but reported Q1 2026 revenue of $601.3 million, up 132% year-over-year, with 90% of software changes now AI-generated. IPO officially closes today under ticker BSP.

Oil Slides Below $71 as US-Iran Qatar Talks Progress — Four-Month Low Cuts Inflation Risk Ahead of Jobs Data

Crude oil fell to a four-month low below $71 a barrel after US and Iranian officials held successful indirect talks in Qatar on safe cargo passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to diplomatic sources. The decline extends a trend from last week's Burgenstock roadmap agreement and materially eases the inflation backdrop ahead of Thursday's June nonfarm payrolls report. Energy sector stocks are under pressure while airlines and transportation stand to benefit from lower jet fuel costs.

Semiconductor Stocks Fall 7–9% in Premarket — Rate-Hike Fears and Profit-Taking Hit Micron, SanDisk, Nvidia After Record Q2

Micron Technology fell 7%, SanDisk dropped 9%, and Nvidia shed 2.5% in premarket trading as investors took profits following the best quarter for chips since the sector's inception, with rate-hike fears amplifying the selling. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained 82% in the first half of 2026. Thursday's hotter-than-expected PCE print gave traders additional cover to trim exposure in the year's most crowded trade as the second half of 2026 begins.

ADP June Payrolls Miss at 98,000 vs. 118,000 Estimate — Weakest Private Hiring Since May 2025 Signals Labor Cooling

U.S. private employers added 98,000 jobs in June, falling short of the 118,000 economist consensus and down from an unrevised 122,000 in May, according to ADP's National Employment Report released this morning. Annual pay grew 4.4% year-over-year. The miss sets up a cautious tone ahead of Friday's official nonfarm payrolls report and adds complexity to a Fed weighing sticky inflation against softening labor demand ahead of a potential 2026 rate hike.