Keyword → M

June CPI Falls 0.4% to 3.5% Annual Rate — Core Inflation Drops to 2.6%, Slashing Fed July Hike Odds to 17%

June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, well below the 3.8% consensus, as gasoline prices collapsed in the wake of June's brief Hormuz ceasefire. Core CPI, which the Fed watches most closely, came in at 2.6% annually — a sharp deceleration from May's 2.9% and below the 2.8% estimate. CME FedWatch immediately repriced July hike odds from 42% to 17%, though September remains priced at roughly 60% for at least one increase.

Trump Reinstates Strait of Hormuz Blockade; Proposes 20% Transit Fee on All Cargo — Brent Crude Jumps 9.5% to $83

President Trump announced the United States will reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports and impose a 20% fee on all non-Iranian cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, effective Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. Brent crude jumped 9.5% to above $83 per barrel, its biggest single-day gain since May 2020, while WTI settled near $78. The move follows a third consecutive night of US strikes on Iran and effectively ends the ceasefire agreement signed in mid-June.

JPMorgan Q2 2026 EPS Beats at $6.14 vs. $5.85 Estimate; Revenue Hits $58.02B — Wells Fargo Posts $2.00 EPS on $1.72 Forecast

JPMorgan Chase reported Q2 2026 EPS of $6.14 against the $5.85 LSEG consensus and revenue of $58.02 billion, towering above the $50.19 billion estimate in one of the company's largest-ever quarterly beats. Wells Fargo matched with $2.00 EPS versus the $1.72 estimate. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup were still pending before the open. Combined, the five banks hold more than $13 trillion in assets and set the tone for an earnings season where S&P 500 profits are expected to grow 23.9% in Q2.

AppLovin Drops 12.7% to $448 — BofA E-Commerce Pixel Slowdown Data and AI Trade Risk-Off Compound Insider Selling Overhang

AppLovin shares fell 12.7% to close at $447.93 on Monday, the worst performer in the S&P 500, as a Bank of America analysis found the company's e-commerce pixel installations slowed to roughly 750 new additions in June from 950 in May. The decline was compounded by a broad AI trade risk-off triggered by the Hormuz blockade escalation and persistent concern over CEO Adam Foroughi's approximately $51 million in June share sales. AppLovin reports Q2 earnings on August 5, guiding for $1.93 billion in revenue.

SK Hynix Falls 15.4% in Record Seoul Plunge — KOSPI Triggers 7th Circuit Breaker of 2026 as AI Memory Unwind Spreads to US Premarket

SK Hynix shares fell 15.4% in Seoul — their worst single-session decline on record — dragging the KOSPI down 8.95% and triggering a 20-minute market-wide circuit breaker, the seventh of 2026. The rout came just one day after SK Hynix's $26.5 billion US ADR debut, as arbitrage selling, a downgraded Q2 profit forecast from Korea Investment & Securities, and renewed US-Iran tensions converged. Micron Technology and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF are both lower in US premarket trading.

TSMC June Revenue Climbs 67.9% to $14.6B — Q2 Total of $39.6B Tops High-End Guidance Ahead of July 16 Earnings

TSMC reported June 2026 revenue of NT$442.68 billion, or $14.6 billion, up 67.9% year-over-year and 6.2% from May, bringing second-quarter total revenue to roughly $39.6 billion — ahead of its own high-end guidance of $40.2 billion when measured on a Bloomberg calculation basis. The figures confirm robust AI chip demand and set a strong tone ahead of full Q2 earnings on July 16, when investors will watch for any raise to TSMC's full-year outlook and CoWoS capacity commentary.

Brent Crude Rises 4% to $78.82 — US-Iran Weekend Airstrikes Reopen Strait of Hormuz Dispute and Shatter June Peace Deal

Brent crude rose more than 4% to touch $78.82 a barrel after US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes over the weekend, with Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed and US Central Command asserting it remains open. The renewed conflict has all but shattered the June memorandum of understanding, with just six vessels tracked crossing the strait in a 12-hour window versus a pre-crisis baseline of 18 to 22 daily crossings. Energy stocks and airline equities face sharply divergent outlooks as oil risk premium rebuilds.

Fed Chair Warsh Prepares for Debut Congressional Testimony Tuesday — 70% Market Probability of September Rate Hike Hangs on His Words

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, Tuesday July 14, with the June CPI report landing 90 minutes before the hearing begins. Markets currently price a 70% probability of a September rate hike after his hawkish June FOMC debut, where nine of nineteen officials projected at least one increase before year-end. Warsh's stance on AI-driven disinflation versus persistent energy-fueled price pressures is the pivotal unknown for rates, equities, and crypto.

Q2 2026 Bank Earnings Season Opens Tuesday — JPMorgan Consensus EPS $5.49, Goldman $14.47, Options Markets Price 4-6% Swings

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs all report Q2 2026 earnings Tuesday before the open, the same morning as the June CPI release. Consensus expects JPMorgan EPS of $5.49 on $48.7 billion in revenue and Goldman EPS of $14.47 on roughly $16 billion — both reflecting year-over-year growth above 10%. Options markets are pricing single-day moves of 4.4% to 6.0%, and the KBW Bank Index is trading near record highs ahead of results.