Keyword → June jobs report

June Jobs Report Adds Only 57,000 vs. 110,000 Expected — September Hike Odds Plunge to 50.7% as Labor Market Cools

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, barely half the 110,000 consensus forecast and the fewest in four months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prior-month revisions subtracted a combined 74,000 positions. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the labor force participation rate dropped to a five-year low of 61.5%. CME FedWatch now shows a 50.7% probability of a September hike, down sharply from 62.8% before the release.

June Nonfarm Payrolls Due at 8:30 AM — Consensus Expects 100,000 Jobs as Fed Rate-Hike Odds Hit 54.5% for 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the June nonfarm payrolls report today at 8:30 AM ET, with Wall Street consensus at 100,000 new jobs versus 172,000 in May. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are expected at 0.3% month-over-month. Markets pricing a 54.5% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end. Wednesday's soft ADP print of 98,000 private-sector jobs has left investors on edge ahead of the binary catalyst.