Keyword → Interest Rates

June CPI Falls 0.4% to 3.5% Annual Rate — Core Inflation Drops to 2.6%, Slashing Fed July Hike Odds to 17%

June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, well below the 3.8% consensus, as gasoline prices collapsed in the wake of June's brief Hormuz ceasefire. Core CPI, which the Fed watches most closely, came in at 2.6% annually — a sharp deceleration from May's 2.9% and below the 2.8% estimate. CME FedWatch immediately repriced July hike odds from 42% to 17%, though September remains priced at roughly 60% for at least one increase.

Fed Chair Warsh Prepares for Debut Congressional Testimony Tuesday — 70% Market Probability of September Rate Hike Hangs on His Words

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, Tuesday July 14, with the June CPI report landing 90 minutes before the hearing begins. Markets currently price a 70% probability of a September rate hike after his hawkish June FOMC debut, where nine of nineteen officials projected at least one increase before year-end. Warsh's stance on AI-driven disinflation versus persistent energy-fueled price pressures is the pivotal unknown for rates, equities, and crypto.

10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4-Week High of 4.58% — Inflation Expectations at 3.7% Keep Rate Hike Pressure on Warsh-Led Fed

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached a four-week high of 4.58% Thursday, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 3.7% as declining US oil inventories and renewed Iran conflict risk reinforce fuel-price concerns. S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% in premarket trading. The Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed deep internal divisions between officials favoring a rate hike and those supporting a cut, making incoming inflation data the dominant swing factor for policy.

FOMC June Minutes Release Today at 2 PM ET — Nine Hawkish Dots Signal Possible September Rate Hike to 3.75%-4.00%

The Federal Reserve releases its June 16-17 FOMC meeting minutes today at 2 p.m. ET, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, who withheld his personal dot-plot projection. Nine of eighteen officials projected at least one rate hike before year-end, and markets assign a 40% probability of a move to 3.75%-4.00% by December. The minutes will reveal whether hawkish dots belong to voting members and how strongly the committee debated an immediate hike versus a hold.

June Jobs Report Adds Only 57,000 vs. 110,000 Expected — September Hike Odds Plunge to 50.7% as Labor Market Cools

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, barely half the 110,000 consensus forecast and the fewest in four months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prior-month revisions subtracted a combined 74,000 positions. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the labor force participation rate dropped to a five-year low of 61.5%. CME FedWatch now shows a 50.7% probability of a September hike, down sharply from 62.8% before the release.

June Nonfarm Payrolls Due at 8:30 AM — Consensus Expects 100,000 Jobs as Fed Rate-Hike Odds Hit 54.5% for 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the June nonfarm payrolls report today at 8:30 AM ET, with Wall Street consensus at 100,000 new jobs versus 172,000 in May. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are expected at 0.3% month-over-month. Markets pricing a 54.5% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end. Wednesday's soft ADP print of 98,000 private-sector jobs has left investors on edge ahead of the binary catalyst.

Treasury Yields Climb to 4.48% on 10-Year Ahead of Thursday's Core PCE Report — Markets Brace for Possible October Hike Signal

The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 3 basis points to 4.483% as investors positioned ahead of Thursday's core PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge. The move follows last week's hawkish FOMC meeting, in which the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but signaled nine of nineteen officials now project at least one rate hike before year-end. Financial and short-duration bond sectors are best positioned if inflation data confirms the Fed's more hawkish stance.

May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% — Highest Since April 2023 With Core at 3.4%, Above 3.3% Forecast, Cementing September Fed Rate Hike as Base Case

The May Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 4.1% year-over-year, its highest reading since April 2023, driven by energy-cost pass-through from the Iran war, matching headline consensus but printing core PCE at 3.4% — a tick above the 3.3% expected. Monthly headline PCE rose 0.4%, slightly below the 0.5% forecast. Markets moved to price a September Federal Reserve rate hike as base case, though analysts broadly viewed May as likely the inflation peak given the sharp subsequent decline in oil prices following Iran ceasefire progress.

May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% Annual Rate — Three-Year High as Core PCE Accelerates to 3.4%, Q1 GDP Revised Up to 2.1%, and Jobless Claims Fall to 215K

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to 4.1% annually in May, the highest since April 2023, as the Iran war's energy price impact continued feeding through consumer prices. Core PCE accelerated to 3.4% year-over-year, slightly above the 3.3% consensus. Offsetting data showed Q1 GDP revised up to 2.1% annualized from 1.6%, and initial jobless claims fell to 215,000. Markets lowered the probability of a July Fed rate hike to roughly 30%, with September remaining the base case.