Keyword → Federal Reserve

Fed Chair Warsh Prepares for Debut Congressional Testimony Tuesday — 70% Market Probability of September Rate Hike Hangs on His Words

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, Tuesday July 14, with the June CPI report landing 90 minutes before the hearing begins. Markets currently price a 70% probability of a September rate hike after his hawkish June FOMC debut, where nine of nineteen officials projected at least one increase before year-end. Warsh's stance on AI-driven disinflation versus persistent energy-fueled price pressures is the pivotal unknown for rates, equities, and crypto.

June Jobs Report Adds Only 57,000 vs. 110,000 Expected — September Hike Odds Plunge to 50.7% as Labor Market Cools

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, barely half the 110,000 consensus forecast and the fewest in four months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prior-month revisions subtracted a combined 74,000 positions. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the labor force participation rate dropped to a five-year low of 61.5%. CME FedWatch now shows a 50.7% probability of a September hike, down sharply from 62.8% before the release.

Federal Reserve Rate-Hike Odds Reach 75% for September 2026 — Higher Yields Pressure Growth Valuations

Markets are increasingly pricing in another Federal Reserve rate increase, with futures implying roughly a 75% probability of a move by September. Rising Treasury yields have pressured long-duration growth stocks and increased volatility across technology sectors. Investors are reassessing valuation assumptions while monitoring inflation data and central bank commentary. The evolving rate outlook could become a dominant driver of equity performance during the remainder of the summer.

Federal Reserve Targets 3.50%-3.75% Rate Hold Today — Kevin Warsh's First Press Conference Tests 55% Hawkish Bet

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% when it concludes a two-day policy meeting this afternoon, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. CME FedWatch data points to a roughly 97% probability of no change, but a Bank of America survey found 55% of respondents expect Warsh to strike a hawkish tone at his 2:30 p.m. press conference. An updated dot plot and economic projections due alongside the statement will offer the clearest signal yet on the rate path into 2027.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Opens First FOMC Meeting Today — Rate Hold at 3.50%-3.75% Widely Expected

The Federal Reserve opened a two-day FOMC meeting today, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, with markets pricing in a near-certain hold on the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Investors are focused less on the rate decision itself and more on Warsh's tone, the updated dot plot, and Wednesday's press conference for signals on policy direction into 2027 amid sticky inflation and pressure from the White House for lower rates.

Kevin Warsh Faces Senate Banking Committee Tuesday in High-Stakes Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to succeed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires May 15, appears before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET. Markets are watching for signals on Fed independence, the pace of balance sheet reduction, and rate policy at a moment when energy-driven inflation and geopolitical uncertainty have left the central bank's path highly uncertain.

March CPI Surges to 3.3% Annual Rate as Iran War-Driven Energy Shock Accelerates Inflation

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning that the Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.3% annual rate in March 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2022, as the U.S.-Iran war sent gasoline prices soaring above $4 per gallon and sharply widened the gap between headline and core inflation, further complicating the Federal Reserve's rate path ahead of its May 1 policy decision.

Weekly Jobless Claims Rise to 219,000, Signaling Early Labor Market Softening

The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 16,000 in the week ending April 4, reaching 219,000 — above analyst expectations — while the four-week moving average ticked higher, offering early evidence that the energy-driven economic disruption may be beginning to filter into the labor market.

Wells Fargo Abandons All 2026 Fed Rate Cut Forecasts as Iran War Locks In Inflation; March CPI Due Friday

Wells Fargo Investment Institute announced Monday it no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at any point in 2026, abandoning its prior forecast of two cuts and citing oil-driven inflation from the Iran war and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. The announcement sets up Friday's March CPI report as a high-stakes macro event, with the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model projecting headline inflation surging from 2.4% to 3.16% year-over-year as the first full energy shock data is captured.