Keyword → Fed rate decision

May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% Annual Rate — Three-Year High as Core PCE Accelerates to 3.4%, Q1 GDP Revised Up to 2.1%, and Jobless Claims Fall to 215K

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to 4.1% annually in May, the highest since April 2023, as the Iran war's energy price impact continued feeding through consumer prices. Core PCE accelerated to 3.4% year-over-year, slightly above the 3.3% consensus. Offsetting data showed Q1 GDP revised up to 2.1% annualized from 1.6%, and initial jobless claims fell to 215,000. Markets lowered the probability of a July Fed rate hike to roughly 30%, with September remaining the base case.

Federal Reserve Rate-Hike Odds Reach 75% for September 2026 — Higher Yields Pressure Growth Valuations

Markets are increasingly pricing in another Federal Reserve rate increase, with futures implying roughly a 75% probability of a move by September. Rising Treasury yields have pressured long-duration growth stocks and increased volatility across technology sectors. Investors are reassessing valuation assumptions while monitoring inflation data and central bank commentary. The evolving rate outlook could become a dominant driver of equity performance during the remainder of the summer.

Trump Signs Iran Peace Deal at Versailles — Oil Drops to $78.40 Brent as Strait of Hormuz Set to Reopen

President Trump signed an interim memorandum of understanding with Iran at the Palace of Versailles, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports. Brent crude fell more than 2% below $78 a barrel and WTI dropped near $74.69, while S&P 500 futures jumped 0.7% and Nasdaq futures rallied 1.1%, clawing back Wednesday's Fed-driven selloff. The 60-day deal requires Iran to dilute enriched uranium stockpiles in exchange for sanctions relief.

Bitcoin Slides 1.1% to $64,215 — Fed's 3.8% Rate Forecast Sparks $82.2M in Spot ETF Outflows

Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $64,215 after the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady but raised its year-end 2026 rate projection to 3.8%, signaling a more hawkish path than markets had priced. The shift triggered $82.2 million in outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and sent shares of Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, down 5.2% in premarket trading. Ether and XRP also softened as traders reassessed liquidity assumptions heading into the second half of 2026.

Federal Reserve Targets 3.50%-3.75% Rate Hold Today — Kevin Warsh's First Press Conference Tests 55% Hawkish Bet

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% when it concludes a two-day policy meeting this afternoon, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. CME FedWatch data points to a roughly 97% probability of no change, but a Bank of America survey found 55% of respondents expect Warsh to strike a hawkish tone at his 2:30 p.m. press conference. An updated dot plot and economic projections due alongside the statement will offer the clearest signal yet on the rate path into 2027.

U.S. Retail Sales Rise 0.9% in May 2026, Nearly Double 0.5% Forecast — Consumer Resilience Tested Ahead of Fed Decision

U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in May, nearly double the 0.5% increase economists had forecast, according to Commerce Department data released this morning. Retail trade sales climbed 1.0% from April and 7.5% from a year earlier, with nonstore retailers up 12.2% year-over-year. The stronger-than-expected print arrives hours before the Federal Reserve's policy decision, giving officials fresh evidence that consumer spending remains resilient even as inflation stays above target.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Opens First FOMC Meeting Today — Rate Hold at 3.50%-3.75% Widely Expected

The Federal Reserve opened a two-day FOMC meeting today, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, with markets pricing in a near-certain hold on the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Investors are focused less on the rate decision itself and more on Warsh's tone, the updated dot plot, and Wednesday's press conference for signals on policy direction into 2027 amid sticky inflation and pressure from the White House for lower rates.

Bitcoin Slips Below $66,000 Despite Iran Peace Deal as Traders Eye Trump Reversal Risk

Bitcoin briefly rose above $67,000 before slipping to trade near $65,845, up just 0.3% on the day despite a broad equity rally tied to the U.S.-Iran peace memorandum. The muted crypto reaction contrasts with the S&P 500's 1.7% gain and Nasdaq's 3.1% surge, with traders citing caution over the durability of the deal and the approaching Fed decision as reasons for the divergence.

US-Iran Ceasefire Sends Nasdaq Futures Up 2.2% — Oil Crashes Below $80 as Strait of Hormuz Reopens

Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 2.2% and S&P 500 futures rose 1.3% on Monday after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil traffic. Brent crude tumbled toward $83 a barrel from above $88, its sharpest drop in months. Gold and Bitcoin also climbed as risk appetite returned, while the dollar weakened against major currencies on reduced geopolitical risk premia.