Keyword → FOMC

Fed Chair Warsh Prepares for Debut Congressional Testimony Tuesday — 70% Market Probability of September Rate Hike Hangs on His Words

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, Tuesday July 14, with the June CPI report landing 90 minutes before the hearing begins. Markets currently price a 70% probability of a September rate hike after his hawkish June FOMC debut, where nine of nineteen officials projected at least one increase before year-end. Warsh's stance on AI-driven disinflation versus persistent energy-fueled price pressures is the pivotal unknown for rates, equities, and crypto.

10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4-Week High of 4.58% — Inflation Expectations at 3.7% Keep Rate Hike Pressure on Warsh-Led Fed

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached a four-week high of 4.58% Thursday, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 3.7% as declining US oil inventories and renewed Iran conflict risk reinforce fuel-price concerns. S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% in premarket trading. The Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed deep internal divisions between officials favoring a rate hike and those supporting a cut, making incoming inflation data the dominant swing factor for policy.

FOMC June Minutes Release Today at 2 PM ET — Nine Hawkish Dots Signal Possible September Rate Hike to 3.75%-4.00%

The Federal Reserve releases its June 16-17 FOMC meeting minutes today at 2 p.m. ET, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, who withheld his personal dot-plot projection. Nine of eighteen officials projected at least one rate hike before year-end, and markets assign a 40% probability of a move to 3.75%-4.00% by December. The minutes will reveal whether hawkish dots belong to voting members and how strongly the committee debated an immediate hike versus a hold.

Bitcoin Drops 2.2% to $62,038 as Iran Re-Escalation and Hawkish Fed Minutes Dual-Press Crypto Risk Assets

Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $62,038 as traders confronted a simultaneous double shock: Iran's ceasefire collapse sent oil surging and risk appetite cratering, while the Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, releasing at 2 p.m. ET, are expected to confirm a hawkish internal debate with nine of eighteen officials favoring a 2026 rate hike. Markets assign a 40% probability of a hike to 3.75%-4.00% by December, and any confirmation of aggressive internal sentiment could push crypto lower.

Federal Reserve Targets 3.50%-3.75% Rate Hold Today — Kevin Warsh's First Press Conference Tests 55% Hawkish Bet

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% when it concludes a two-day policy meeting this afternoon, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. CME FedWatch data points to a roughly 97% probability of no change, but a Bank of America survey found 55% of respondents expect Warsh to strike a hawkish tone at his 2:30 p.m. press conference. An updated dot plot and economic projections due alongside the statement will offer the clearest signal yet on the rate path into 2027.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Opens First FOMC Meeting Today — Rate Hold at 3.50%-3.75% Widely Expected

The Federal Reserve opened a two-day FOMC meeting today, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, with markets pricing in a near-certain hold on the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Investors are focused less on the rate decision itself and more on Warsh's tone, the updated dot plot, and Wednesday's press conference for signals on policy direction into 2027 amid sticky inflation and pressure from the White House for lower rates.

Fed Faces June 17 FOMC Decision With 89% Odds of No Change — 4.2% CPI Keeps Cut Hopes on Ice

The Federal Reserve's FOMC meets June 16-17, with prediction markets assigning roughly 89% to 99% odds that the federal funds rate stays unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. May CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year, well above the Fed's 2% target, while unemployment near 4.3% has reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. Investors are watching closely for any shift in the Fed's policy bias under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Leaves Strait of Hormuz Blocked, Oil Back Above $100

A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran sparked a historic rally on Wednesday, but optimism faded Thursday as Iran continued restricting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing WTI crude back above $100 per barrel and sending equities lower after the prior session's surge.

Weekly Jobless Claims Rise to 219,000, Signaling Early Labor Market Softening

The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 16,000 in the week ending April 4, reaching 219,000 — above analyst expectations — while the four-week moving average ticked higher, offering early evidence that the energy-driven economic disruption may be beginning to filter into the labor market.