Keyword → CPI inflation

Fed Faces June 17 FOMC Decision With 89% Odds of No Change — 4.2% CPI Keeps Cut Hopes on Ice

The Federal Reserve's FOMC meets June 16-17, with prediction markets assigning roughly 89% to 99% odds that the federal funds rate stays unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. May CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year, well above the Fed's 2% target, while unemployment near 4.3% has reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. Investors are watching closely for any shift in the Fed's policy bias under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

March CPI Surges to 3.3% Annual Rate as Iran War-Driven Energy Shock Accelerates Inflation

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning that the Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.3% annual rate in March 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2022, as the U.S.-Iran war sent gasoline prices soaring above $4 per gallon and sharply widened the gap between headline and core inflation, further complicating the Federal Reserve's rate path ahead of its May 1 policy decision.

Inflation Cools to 2.4% in January, Lowest Since May as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Intensify

U.S. consumer prices rose 2.4% year-over-year in January 2026, below the 2.5% consensus forecast and marking the slowest inflation pace since May 2025. The softer-than-expected reading sparked a Treasury yield decline to 4.07% and boosted market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning as early as March, providing relief to rate-sensitive sectors.