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10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4-Week High of 4.58% — Inflation Expectations at 3.7% Keep Rate Hike Pressure on Warsh-Led Fed

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached a four-week high of 4.58% Thursday, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 3.7% as declining US oil inventories and renewed Iran conflict risk reinforce fuel-price concerns. S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% in premarket trading. The Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed deep internal divisions between officials favoring a rate hike and those supporting a cut, making incoming inflation data the dominant swing factor for policy.

FOMC June Minutes Release Today at 2 PM ET — Nine Hawkish Dots Signal Possible September Rate Hike to 3.75%-4.00%

The Federal Reserve releases its June 16-17 FOMC meeting minutes today at 2 p.m. ET, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, who withheld his personal dot-plot projection. Nine of eighteen officials projected at least one rate hike before year-end, and markets assign a 40% probability of a move to 3.75%-4.00% by December. The minutes will reveal whether hawkish dots belong to voting members and how strongly the committee debated an immediate hike versus a hold.

Blue Origin Raises $10 Billion at $130 Billion Valuation — First Outside Funding in 25 Years Led by Coatue, Bezos

Blue Origin is raising $10 billion in its first-ever outside funding round at a pre-money valuation of $130 billion, with Coatue Management leading at $4 billion, Jeff Bezos contributing $2 billion, and institutional investors covering the remainder. The round comes weeks after SpaceX's $86 billion IPO valued Musk's company at roughly $2 trillion. Amazon stock, Blue Origin's historical funding source, is in focus as Bezos no longer needs to sell shares to sustain the company.

Bitcoin Drops 2.2% to $62,038 as Iran Re-Escalation and Hawkish Fed Minutes Dual-Press Crypto Risk Assets

Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $62,038 as traders confronted a simultaneous double shock: Iran's ceasefire collapse sent oil surging and risk appetite cratering, while the Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, releasing at 2 p.m. ET, are expected to confirm a hawkish internal debate with nine of eighteen officials favoring a 2026 rate hike. Markets assign a 40% probability of a hike to 3.75%-4.00% by December, and any confirmation of aggressive internal sentiment could push crypto lower.

Iran's IRGC Fires Missiles at Two Strait of Hormuz Vessels — Brent Crude Rises $0.50 to $72.49 as Peace Deal Durability Questioned

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly fired missiles at two commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude 50 cents higher to $72.49 per barrel and raising fresh doubts about the durability of the U.S.-Iran peace framework. A tanker was hit off the coast of Oman, causing a fire with no reported casualties, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations. The incident arrives as both sides are still negotiating a permanent settlement, with US forces expected to assess retaliatory options.

NATO Picks Saab GlobalEye Over Boeing in ~$4.5B AWACS Deal — 10 Aircraft to Replace Cold War E-3 Fleet by 2030

NATO announced at its Ankara summit that it will begin formal negotiations with Saab to acquire up to 10 GlobalEye Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft in a deal estimated at roughly $4.5 billion, replacing the alliance's aging Boeing E-3 AWACS fleet. Eleven member nations are jointly procuring the Swedish system, which beat rival offerings from Boeing. Saab has not yet signed a contract, but the announcement sent the company's shares higher as defense investors weighed the landmark win.

Dow Gains 83 Points to Record High as Dow Rotates Away from AI Chips — S&P 500 and Nasdaq Fall 0.2% and 0.7%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 83 points, or 0.2%, to a fresh all-time intraday high, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.7% as investors rotated out of semiconductor names following Samsung's disappointing revenue guidance. Micron fell 5%, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF dropped more than 3%, and chipmakers including KLA, Marvell, Broadcom, and AMD all declined. Gains in JPMorgan, Microsoft, Eli Lilly, and Walmart offset selling pressure in the broader market.

Comcast Sky Acquires ITV Media & Entertainment for Up to £1.6B — Combined Entity Controls 70%+ of UK TV Ad Market

Comcast's Sky has agreed to buy ITV's broadcast channels and ITVX streaming service for up to £1.6 billion ($2.13 billion), creating a combined entity that analysts estimate would control more than 70% of the UK television advertising market. ITV Studios — the production arm behind Love Island and Coronation Street — will be spun off as a standalone listed company. The deal arrives one week after Comcast outlined plans to spin off NBCUniversal, signaling an accelerating strategic pivot in global media consolidation.

June Jobs Report Adds Only 57,000 vs. 110,000 Expected — September Hike Odds Plunge to 50.7% as Labor Market Cools

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, barely half the 110,000 consensus forecast and the fewest in four months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prior-month revisions subtracted a combined 74,000 positions. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the labor force participation rate dropped to a five-year low of 61.5%. CME FedWatch now shows a 50.7% probability of a September hike, down sharply from 62.8% before the release.