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Bitcoin Slides 1.1% to $64,215 — Fed's 3.8% Rate Forecast Sparks $82.2M in Spot ETF Outflows

Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $64,215 after the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady but raised its year-end 2026 rate projection to 3.8%, signaling a more hawkish path than markets had priced. The shift triggered $82.2 million in outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and sent shares of Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, down 5.2% in premarket trading. Ether and XRP also softened as traders reassessed liquidity assumptions heading into the second half of 2026.

Meta Platforms Tries to Rebound After 5.4% Slide to $567.58 — AI-for-Work Product Lead Exit Still Weighs

Meta Platforms shares attempted a premarket rebound Thursday after tumbling 5.4% to $567.58 on Wednesday, a drop that erased roughly $83 billion in market value. The slide followed Reuters reporting that Emily Dalton Smith, the executive leading Meta's AI-for-Work product effort, is departing the company just two months after being named to the role. Investors are weighing the departure against Meta's already-elevated 2026 capital expenditure forecast of $125 billion to $145 billion.

Alphabet Dips 0.4% to $362.26 as Gemini Co-Lead Noam Shazeer Departs for OpenAI — Google Once Paid $2.7B to Bring Him Back

Alphabet shares slipped 0.4% to $362.26 in premarket trading after Noam Shazeer, the Gemini AI co-lead credited with closing the gap on ChatGPT, announced he is leaving Google to join rival OpenAI. Google reportedly paid $2.7 billion less than two years ago to bring Shazeer and his Character.AI team back into the fold, making his exit a fresh test of the company's ability to retain top AI talent. The move comes as Alphabet raised its planned equity sales to $84.75 billion.

Brent Crude Falls to $78, Five-Day Low — Interim US-Iran Deal Set for Friday Signing Could Restore Hormuz Flows

Brent crude fell toward $78 a barrel today, its fifth straight losing session and the lowest level since early March, as traders priced in a planned interim agreement between the United States and Iran set to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. The deal would let Tehran immediately resume oil exports and ease restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping, prompting tanker operators to begin repositioning vessels toward the region. The International Energy Agency warned the shift could contribute to a renewed global oil surplus.

Oil Prices Drop 4.8% to $80.75 as Iran Deal Reopens Strait of Hormuz — Energy Sector ETF Falls 3.6%

U.S. crude oil fell 4.8% to $80.75 a barrel and Brent crude dropped 4.7% to $83.17 after the United States and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a route handling roughly 20% of global oil supply. The Energy Select Sector SPDR fund slid 3.6% even as the broader market rallied, with analysts cautioning that full shipping traffic normalization could take months.

U.S. Navy Seizes Iranian Cargo Ship Touska, Tehran Shuts Hormuz Again; Ceasefire Talks Collapse as Oil Surges 7%

The USS Spruance fired on and seized the Iranian-flagged cargo vessel Touska in the Gulf of Oman after it defied U.S. blockade warnings over six hours, triggering Iran to reimpose full closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Tehran's foreign ministry announced Monday it has no plans to attend a second round of Islamabad peace talks, sending WTI crude surging 7% above $89 and U.S. equity futures falling sharply as the fragile ceasefire — set to expire Wednesday — appears on the brink of collapse.

Retail Sales, Warsh Hearing, and Expiring Ceasefire: The Three Macro Events That Will Define This Week's Market Direction

Beyond the earnings deluge, three macro catalysts will determine whether the stock market's historic April rally can hold or unravel this week: Tuesday's retail sales data for March, expected at plus 1.4% month-over-month and closely watched as a consumer health indicator; Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation hearing also Tuesday; and the Wednesday expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire, which now appears at serious risk of collapse following the weekend ship seizure and Hormuz re-closure.

Trump Orders U.S. Naval Blockade of Strait of Hormuz After Iran Peace Talks Collapse

President Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday after weekend peace negotiations in Islamabad between the U.S. and Iran ended without a deal. The move sent oil prices surging past $103 per barrel, rattled global equity markets, and reignited fears of a prolonged energy supply shock that could deepen inflationary pressures across the global economy.

Trump Threatens 50% Tariff on China Over Alleged Iran Arms Shipment, Escalating Trade and Geopolitical Tensions

President Trump on Sunday threatened to impose an immediate 50% tariff on Chinese goods if Beijing is proven to be supplying military weapons to Iran, following reports of a potential air defense system shipment. The warning compounds existing geopolitical stress and raises fresh concerns about U.S.-China trade relations ahead of a scheduled May summit, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile global market environment.