Keyword → unemployment rate 4.3 percent

May Nonfarm Payrolls Due 8:30 a.m. ET — Consensus at 125K Jobs, Unemployment Steady at 4.3% — Fed Rate-Hike Debate Hinges on Print

The May 2026 nonfarm payrolls report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday with consensus pointing to 125,000 new jobs added — up from April's 115,000 beat — and unemployment holding at 4.3%. The print carries outsized policy weight: CME FedWatch prices a 50% probability of a rate hike before year-end, meaning a significantly above-consensus reading risks reigniting rate-hike bets while a miss could revive cut expectations against a 3.8% PCE backdrop.