Keyword → Iran war economic impact

OECD June 2026 Outlook Cuts Global Growth to 2.8%, US to 2.0% — Warns of 2.1% Collapse and Recession Risk if Hormuz Stays Closed Into 2027

The OECD's June 2026 Economic Outlook cut its global growth forecast to 2.8% from 2.9% and its U.S. growth estimate to 2.0%, warning that a prolonged Middle East war could collapse worldwide growth to 2.1% — the deepest slowdown in 40 years outside COVID and the 2008 financial crisis. Global inflation is now projected at 4.0% for 2026, up from 3.4% in 2025, with eurozone growth slumping to 0.8%. The OECD's chief economist warned that energy-intensive AI investment could fall, raising unemployment.

Final May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Due Today; Preliminary Hit Record Low 48.2 as Gas Prices and Tariffs Weigh

The University of Michigan releases its final May 2026 consumer sentiment reading Friday at 10 a.m. ET, with economists watching to see if the preliminary record-low print of 48.2 is revised up or confirmed. The preliminary showed sentiment essentially unchanged from April's prior record trough, with current conditions falling 9% as one-third of consumers cited gas prices and 30% cited tariffs as primary financial pressures, and year-ahead inflation expectations standing at 4.5% — signaling that the Iran war's economic toll on American households has not yet abated.